12 studies. 11 countries. All DA scores measured against published Pew Research Center ground truth.
10 calibrated questions measured against Pew American Trends Panel ground truth. The holdout score — 81.9% — earned on 5 questions the system never saw during calibration, with zero topic anchors.
Ground truth: Pew American Trends Panel, Waves 119–130, 2022–2023. 40 personas · WorldviewAnchor architecture. Holdout questions pre-designated before calibration — zero topic anchors applied.
The first cross-national study where every country independently exceeded 91% DA against Pew ground truth — not as a mean, but each nation on its own. Rebuilt using Simulatte Persona Generator cohorts across all 9 nations.
The calibration-to-holdout gap varies substantially across countries — Netherlands (81.47% holdout) and Poland (79.31%) show strong generalisation, while Hungary (55.92%) and Spain (61.07%) reveal where worldview transfer still has work to do. Every country is ±0.00pp across 3 replications.
40 personas per country · Simulatte Persona Generator (v2 rebuild) · 15 questions per country (10 shared cross-national + 5 country-specific) · Sprint EUR-1 · ±0.00pp variance.
The first study in the program where holdout DA — earned on questions never seen during calibration, with zero topic anchors — also exceeds 91% DA. The calibration-to-holdout gap is 1.74pp, down from 13.4pp in the US study.
Ground truth: Pew Global Attitudes Survey 2023 + CSDS-Lokniti NES (N ≈ 2,044–3,281 per question). Sprint IND-1 · ±0.00pp variance · 3 replications.
12 completed studies. All scores measured against published Pew Research Center ground truth. All holdout questions pre-designated before calibration — zero topic anchors applied.
| Study | Calibrated DA | Holdout DA |
|---|---|---|
| PEW USA v2 | 95.3% ±0.00pp | 81.9% ±0.87pp |
| PEW India v2 ★ Peak | 97.61% ±0.00pp | 95.87% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — Italy | 95.48% ±0.00pp | 63.10% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — Poland | 94.55% ±0.00pp | 79.31% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — Netherlands | 94.41% ±0.00pp | 81.47% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — UK | 94.00% ±0.00pp | 63.03% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — Greece | 93.93% ±0.00pp | 69.53% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — Sweden | 93.37% ±0.00pp | 69.78% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — Hungary | 91.47% ±0.00pp | 55.92% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — Spain | 91.45% ±0.00pp | 61.07% ±0.00pp |
| Europe — France | 91.33% ±0.00pp | 73.96% ±0.00pp |
| PEW Germany (1C) | 91.3% | 76.5% |
★ India v2 is the only study where holdout DA (95.87%) also exceeds 91%. DA = 1 − TVD = 1 − Σ|realᵢ − simᵢ| / 2.
Distribution Accuracy (DA) measures how closely Simulatte's synthetic population mirrors real survey distributions. Every study follows the same protocol: calibrate on published data, then test on holdout questions the system has never seen.